163 Ahuza Street, Raanana, ISRAEL -- Telephone/Fax: (972)-9-7717080




THE FOUR-YEAR WEATHER CYCLE



Being in the flower-growing business, it is perhaps quite undersandable that we are sensitive to the weather situation. By "weather" we are referring primariliy to the Israeli winter and to the rainy season. (For all practical agricultural purposes, it never rains in the summer in Israel). The dry season extends from April to November.

Although almost all of our flowers are grown in greenhouses, we are still concerned about rainfall. A drought year means a reduction in water allocations for agricultural purposes. If we were to be able to know years in advance what the rainfall would be each winter, then this would give us an advantage in deciding which types of flowers to grow and when to plant.

As it turns out, there is a definite pattern to the weather in our part of the Middle East. Years ago I have noticed a four-year weather cycle. The first year of the weather cycle has above-average rainfall, while the fourth and last year of the cycle is a drought year.

The following table illustrates this point. For purpose of simplicity, each winter is listed as beginning in January. This is because most rainfall in Israel falls in January and February.


  WINTER

                   Quantity of Rainfall

January 1926

3rd year - severe drought (water had to be brought up

from the coast to Jerusalem by train).

          -

 

January 1988

1st year - slightly above average - 105%

January 1989

2nd year - average year - 100%

January 1990

3rd year - near average winter - 95%

January 1991

4th year - very little rain (Gulf War) - 80%

          -

 

January 1992

1st year - record rainfall - 130%

January 1993

2nd year - 110% rainfall

January 1994

3rd year - 100% rainfall

January 1995

4th year - 90% rainfall

          -

 

January 1996

1st year - 103% rainfall

January 1997

2nd year - 98% rainfall - late rain

January 1998

3rd year - El Nino year - 95% rainfall

January 1999

4th year - drought year - 50% rainfall

          -

 

January 2000

1st year - above average rainfall - 140%

(solar maximum year for sunspots)

January 2001

2nd year - above average rainfall - 110%

January 2002

3rd year - average rainfall - 98%

January 2003

4th year - drought year - 90%

 

 

 

 

 





Next winter, however, is the beginning of a new four-year weather cycle and according to my predictions, Israel will receive a record rainfall of at least 140% the annual average figure.

My weather predictions do seem to be accurate. Evidently, all the scientists and meteorologists are so immersed in mathematical calculations that no really notices the real weather patterns outside. No one in the scientific community seems to have noticed this weather cycle, however -- at least not from what I read in the press.

No, I have never presented my rainfall predictions to anyone like the government meteorology department. They would most probably want tons of scientific data to back up my claims. In August 1998, for example, the government meteorology department used tons of data to predict that the winter of 1998-99 would be a winter of record rainfall. I predicted that it would be a record drought. I was proved correct.

CONTACT US:
Telefax: (972)-9-7717080
Mobile Phone: (972)-50-546516
Toll-Free Phone: 1-800-877 977 (Within Israel only)
E-Mail us at: [email protected]
Table of Contents

© Copyright 1999 Flowers and Sympatya, Israel. All rights reserved.